May 2024 saw a succession of powerful solar storms in outer space, culminating in a record flare on May 14. Mission Space co-founders Alexey Shirobokov and Alex Pospekhov tell us more about these phenomena and their potential effects on space players and telecommunication devices.
Can you explain the scale and potential consequences of the current geomagnetic storm we’re facing?
When the X8.7 flare burst, a subsequent G4-level geomagnetic storm, classified as ‘Severe’ by NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, struck Earth as a stark reminder of the damages space weather events can cause.
What’s worse, the Solar Cycle 25 that we are in is yet to reach its halfway point, which means more storms will come, triggered by other solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The current solar cycle has a ~20% rise in solar activity compared to the previous one. There are 30% more sunspots now if compared with March’s data. With the Sun’s activity levels on the rise, we can expect more severe infrastructure damage, both in space and on Earth.
Extreme storms like this have the potential to wreak havoc on our power grids, communication networks, and satellite operations. The costs of these May events are still being tallied but may have already resulted in logistical delays, production downtime, and increased satellite maintenance expenses.
“developing and launching second-tier satellites is essential to reinforce the monitoring system and ensure a steady data flow.”
Alexey Shirobokov and Alex Pospekhov, Mission Space co-founders
Which industries are the most at risk of being affected by this?
The energy sector, telecommunications, and GPS are particularly at risk. Solar storms can bypass modern protective measures, causing blackouts and disrupting our ability to communicate and navigate.
Power stations face the threat of fires due to geomagnetically induced currents: solar storms can induce GICs in power lines, transformers, and other electrical infrastructure. These currents can overload systems, causing transformers to overheat, potentially leading to fires, equipment damage, and widespread blackouts. At the same time, space satellites are also vulnerable to intense radiation and electrical charge.
Solar radiation can interfere with the electronic components of satellites, causing temporary or permanent damage. In the scenario of a satellite malfunction, GNSS/GPS failures could occur. It’s especially important in aviation. Solar storms can disrupt aviation communication and navigation systems, leading to increased risks during flights, particularly in polar regions where the Earth’s magnetic field shielding is weaker and solar particles are more likely to penetrate the atmosphere. Also, increased radiation levels at high altitudes during solar storms pose health risks to airline passengers and crew, particularly on long-haul flights.
Why is it necessary to build second-tier satellites for effective defence against geomagnetic storms?
Our current capabilities are limited by ageing satellite infrastructure. Many crucial space weather monitoring satellites are operating beyond their designed lifespans and are increasingly susceptible to solar flares.
Moreover, launching such satellites or their maintenance takes decades and is extremely expensive. Take Aditya-L1, the most recently launched coronagraphy spacecraft, which is considered to be a cost-effective one and reportedly cost $45m, excluding launch expenses.
If existing equipment fails, we may lose the ability to accurately predict space weather, which is crucial to preventing the negative effects of geomagnetic storms. This is why developing and launching second-tier satellites is essential to reinforce the monitoring system and ensure a steady data flow.
Such satellites are less costly and more easily developed and launched. Their small clusters can quickly replace outdated equipment. Regardless of the damage caused by solar radiation and if further satellites fail, this second-tier equipment will maintain uninterrupted data collection to streamline the Earth. Given the current solar activity, this measure is becoming increasingly crucial.
How does Mission Space fit into this?
Mission Space specialises in the development and launching of second-generation satellites for monitoring space weather. It is planning to launch a monitoring satellite constellation with 24 satellites dispersed evenly across two orbits, allowing it to obtain comprehensive data for the whole surface of Earth and near-Earth space. This setup will enable the company to take simultaneous measurements at multiple locations, creating standardised data sets and uninterrupted data flow for further analysis.
The company predicts geomagnetic storms and other space weather phenomena based on data from their custom-designed satellites, applying machine learning and other relative methods. By studying the insights of Mission Space, end users of their services can take effective action to protect their assets.
Mission Space believes that improving our forecasting capabilities and protecting our energy and communication networks from the potential threats of solar storms is a reform of the utmost importance. The consequences of inaction could be catastrophic, as the modern lifestyle depends increasingly on the reliable functioning of communication satellites and electricity distribution.
They also advocate for creating a global data repository for space weather data, known as a data lake, which will be a big step toward a comprehensive space weather analytics setup. It would allow stakeholders with assets located in different areas of the globe to take proactive steps to safeguard their systems.
“Until a global data lake is established, the lack of refined predictive tech capabilities and universal data standards leaves infrastructure operators with little to no time to prepare for incoming geomagnetic storms.”
Alexey Shirobokov and Alex Pospekhov, Mission Space co-founders
What path is space weather data taking now, and is it realistic to prepare for the next storms?
Currently, the data on space weather is stored in archives and databases providing information for further analysis. End users can access the data and forecasts through specialised websites, like SpaceWeather.com, the SSA Space Weather Segment (SWE) and the NOAA SWPC. However, they will then have to interpret complex technical data themselves.
Besides, there are currently no universal data standards: neither for common formats, nor measurement or processing methods, which makes working with various space weather data sources difficult, inefficient, and even error-prone.
Due to this, data users can miss crucial forecasting factors and signs, leading to severe immediate and costly consequences like power outages, satellite failures, and disruption of air traffic. Just one recent example: planting in the US was stalled this May due to the agricultural drones’ degraded positional accuracy because of the GPS connectivity issues.
Until a global data lake is established, the lack of refined predictive tech capabilities and universal data standards leaves infrastructure operators with little to no time to prepare for incoming geomagnetic storms. Additionally, a single central service that can collect and present space weather data clearly and understandably will increase the accuracy of forecasts and enable users to take preventive measures to protect their infrastructure elements on Earth and in space.
So, overall, preparing for upcoming storms is possible only with a coordinated effort that will include launching second-generation satellites to monitor space weather and ensuring companies and ordinary people have access to cleaned and processed data that delivers insights to take action upon.
